Preview: Floyd Mayweather vs Robert Guerrero
Photos by Tom Casino for Showtime
by Gautham Nagesh
Genius rarely takes an appealing form. But make no mistake, Floyd Mayweather Jr. is a boxing genius, on par with any fighter that has laced up a pair of gloves.
History is littered with countless examples of great men whose personal failings were whitewashed in light of their achievements. Boxing is no different; Sonny Liston was a violent criminal before becoming heavyweight champion, Don King a convicted murderer long before his first promotion. Boxing has been run by crooks and criminals, thieves and low-rent thugs. Many of them are still around. It’s hardly a place for the pious or self-righteous.
Robert Guerrero is both of those things; central casting couldn’t have produced a better champion for the throngs of Floyd-haters than “The Ghost.” His arrest for gun possession not withstanding, Guerrero is the perfect fighter to play the hero to Floyd’s heel. Guerrero’s main backstory is his devotion to his wife, a cancer survivor. He spends every interview praising God and playing the humble Mexican-American fighter, while Floyd shamelessly preens and flaunts his wealth.
But the beauty of boxing is that once the bell sounds, nothing matters but what happens inside the ropes. And no one in the world is more comfortable in the boxing ring than Floyd Mayweather. He remains a superb stylist, a fluid and elegant counterpuncher of the first order with a preternatural talent for avoiding punches. Guerrero, on the other hand, is a dirty fighter, and one that has never scored a knockout above lightweight. His only hope is to hurt Mayweather with something other than a fist and hope the referee doesn’t notice.
Floyd’s personality may grate, but his style is pure poetry to lovers of the Sweet Science. There is simply no one better at “hit and don’t be hit” than Mayweather, the scion of the first fighting family of Grand Rapids. Even as his shows signs of slowing, Floyd’s immense skill should allow him to dominate the much rougher Guerrero. The Ghost is plenty skilled in his own right, but Floyd will make him look slow and foolish at times .
Guerrero’s best bet is to use his reach and jab Floyd constantly, while working his way in close and trying to make it a brawl. Punching Mayweather’s head is nearly impossible, so the focus early should be on his body, arms and shoulders, even below the belt if necessary. Once those blows start to tell, Guerrero could potentially force Floyd to stand and trade in the later rounds, in hopes of convincing the judges to give him the decision.
Floyd has been ruffled a few times in recent fights, especially when forced against the ropes. Constant pressure and a little bending of the rules will probably be necessary to keep Mayweather on his toes. But the only way for Guerrero to win a decision in Floyd’s hometown is to out-work him constantly, and hope Mayweather has an off night. That doesn’t seem likely, given Floyd’s experience and lengthy track record, but there’s a first time for everything.
Still, I see Floyd handling the pressure well, especially when Guerrero starts to lose steam or stops jabbing after the first couple rounds. Those short left check-hooks that Floyd throws may discourage Guerrero’s advance, or it could be the straight right hand followed by some quick footwork to get away. Regardless, the main problem should be Floyd’s ability to control the fight at a distance, and make Guerrero pay in order to get in. Referee Robert Byrd will also play a large role, given Mayweather’s propensity for holding inside, where Guerrero will try to get rough.
The pick is for Floyd to remain undefeated with a clear decision, or possibly a late knockout thanks to accumulation of blows. Guerrero is a good fighter that has never beaten a top-notch welterweight, so there’s no telling whether he can take Floyd’s power. We know Floyd can take a punch, and Guerrero isn’t especially known for his power, so a knockout for the Ghost would challenge Buster Douglas for the sport’s most unlikely. There’s always the possibility of a close decision that goes Guerrero’s way, which seems like his best-case scenario.
A solid Pay Per View card includes an excellent featherweight scrap as the co-feature between Abner Mares (right)and Daniel Ponce de Leon. Mares was great at 122 lbs., but featherweight is a whole different game. The winner would be in line for a unification bout with Mikey Garcia for the chance to become the true featherweight champ of the world. We’re taking Mares in a barnburner, which may include knockdowns for both fighters. Ponce de Leon is tough, so we’re not discounting his odds of coming out on top. It’s a 50–50 fight.
Mares’ ascension to featherweight leaves Leo Santa Cruz(left) as Golden Boy’s top fighter at 122 lbs., which they probably prefer to having their two potential cash cows meet inside the ring. Santa Cruz is an exciting fighter thanks to his perpetual forward motion and body attack; he already shows signs of becoming a big attraction in the future. His opponent Alexander Munoz has been in with very good competition and should present a test, but we’re taking Santa Cruz on points.
J’Leon Love of Detroit (left) and Gabriel Rosado of Philadelphia will meet in the Pay Per View Opener, which means you should either be in your seat early or have the DVR programmed correctly. Rosado is a warrior, a fan-friendly fighter with a ton of heart. But his best weight is 154, and this fight is at 160. Rosado put up a good effort against middleweight demolition artist Gennady Golovkin, but ultimately succumbed to the Kazakh’s power. Love is not the same sort of puncher as Triple G, and this will be a much closer fight.
Rosado had the correct game plan against Golovkin, and should fight smartly again in this fight. Love is a good talent, but this is a pretty big step up for him, and he doesn’t have the power to make up for mistakes. If Love stays close and makes it an inside fight, Rosado will have the edge. If he uses his size and reach to out-box the Philly native, Love should be able to win a decision. But Rosado will have his say, and we’re picking him to pull the upset on the kid from Motown, as much as it pains us. If Love does win as his handlers at Mayweather Promotions expect, he should be considered a finished product. Another pick-em fight.
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Fox Deportes has a card tonight at the Cosmopolitan in Vegas featuring a host of Golden Boy and Mayweather Promotions prospects, including Dominic Breazeale, Joseph Diaz Jr, Errol Spence Jr., Anthony Dirrell, and Anthony Orozco…Heavyweight boss Wladimir Klitschko will defend his belt collection against Italy’s Francesco Pianeta Saturday in Mannheim, German on Epix. Pianeta best wins came last year against Frans Both and Oliver McCall, both in their mid-40s. He will most become the 51st knockout victim of Klitschko’s Hall of Fame career.
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